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Since the Pens post is leading us in this direction, I decided to do the work.  I only looked at 2007 (Bantam Major) last year in the MyHockeyRankings.  As most of you know, the rating tells you how many goals you are expected to beat another team.  If we are saying to be "legit" AAA you shouldn't get blown out at the top, we run into a pretty immediate problem as there are some truly elite teams out there.

 

Shattuck St. Mary's is a 99.99.  #3 Pens elite should lose to them by a goal every time, on average.  That is insane talent and a huge dropoff.   Consider much lower in the rankings a 1 goal difference goes from 182-224.    By the time we get only to #19. the Flyers, they should lose to Shattuck by 5 goals (and Pens by 4) on average.  Not very competitive.  The Flyers, however, at #19 could play everyone down to #47 and only win by 2 goals on average.  And #47 could play basically anyone in the top 100 and have a 2 goal average win but still lose to Shattuck by 7.  That means #100 could have a roughly 4 goal, on average, game against #19, which depending on your perspective is a blowout or not.  In fact, for the Flyers at #17 to beat a team by 5 goals or more, they would have to play teams below 146.  

 

All that to be said, trying to pigeonhole who is AAA is silly.  What we can all agree on is that having too many AAA teams waters down the local competition (PAHL).  Sometimes I wish it was more like lacrosse where you had travel teams in a completely different season (maybe before or after the local clubs).  

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Adding:  The first team that I see that calls themselves AA shows up at 64 but they don't really start showing up until after 100.  The Pittsburgh Vengeance are the only local team ranked below AA teams (Shaha, Allegheny, and Arctic Foxes) and they came in at a whopping 182.  Everyone should clearly be able to agree they should have played PAHL.  I also don't see a Preds 07 AAA team. Their top team was ranked 207.

Edited by aaaahockey
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1 hour ago, aaaahockey said:

Adding:  The first team that I see that calls themselves AA shows up at 64 but they don't really start showing up until after 100.  The Pittsburgh Vengeance are the only local team ranked below AA teams (Shaha, Allegheny, and Arctic Foxes) and they came in at a whopping 182.  Everyone should clearly be able to agree they should have played PAHL.  I also don't see a Preds 07 AAA team. Their top team was ranked 207.

Amen sir!  Well written.  My point is now at that 2007 birth year you have the new AAA Preds, AAA Icemen, SHAHA  AAA and Vengeance AAA that all should be playing PAHL AA.  It is a fast  growing problem in the area. Same thing happened with the 2009 group.  You had the 2009 SHAHA go AAA and Preds go AAA this year.  The really sad part is the 2009 Pred and SHAHA then put two horrible A level teams in the PAHL AA division.  They are A level teams that will water down AA and more teams will then follow to the "I am an independent AAA team because I did so well in PAHL.  Very well said above

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20 minutes ago, Carl Racki said:

Amen sir!  Well written.  My point is now at that 2007 birth year you have the new AAA Preds, AAA Icemen, SHAHA  AAA and Vengeance AAA that all should be playing PAHL AA.  It is a fast  growing problem in the area. Same thing happened with the 2009 group.  You had the 2009 SHAHA go AAA and Preds go AAA this year.  The really sad part is the 2009 Pred and SHAHA then put two horrible A level teams in the PAHL AA division.  They are A level teams that will water down AA and more teams will then follow to the "I am an independent AAA team because I did so well in PAHL.  Very well said above

I think you are 100% right except I think 09 Preds have always been bad AAA.  SHAHA is new but Preds have been pretending for several years.  At the 09 level to my knowledge only Vengeance and Pens are legit.   I think Esmark, Preds have always been bad and we will see with SHAHA next week when the rankings come out but I assume they will all three be in the 100s.  

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Also, and sorry to keep double posting, the irony of it all is they all refuse to play each other.  07 Pens, Vengeance, Esmark, Icemen, Preds, SHAHA could make a league.  Even if you took Pens out, that's a strong AA.  But, as much as MyHockeyRankings is helpful, they wont play each other because oh my god we might lose 10 spots in the rankings.  

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5 hours ago, Carl Racki said:

Amen sir!  Well written.  My point is now at that 2007 birth year you have the new AAA Preds, AAA Icemen, SHAHA  AAA and Vengeance AAA that all should be playing PAHL AA.  It is a fast  growing problem in the area. Same thing happened with the 2009 group.  You had the 2009 SHAHA go AAA and Preds go AAA this year.  The really sad part is the 2009 Pred and SHAHA then put two horrible A level teams in the PAHL AA division.  They are A level teams that will water down AA and more teams will then follow to the "I am an independent AAA team because I did so well in PAHL.  Very well said above

Same sh!t, another year. 

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The main argument for players to play faux AAA is to get a little more structure and coaching, despite not being any more talented than other local AA teams.

However, recently there has been a push for AA teams to bring in qualified coaches. If you look across some of the clubs that typically field AA teams at all levels, they have equivalent (or better) coaches than most of these faux AAA teams. Hopefully the trend continues and that "AAA" push dies down a bit.

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I have the solution….need to creat a new level….AAAA?  Perhaps, but how about 6AAAAAA.  Make a big divide between that AAA.

Just make all B, A Minor, A Major = AA and AA = AAA.  All of the kids and parents will be happy and egos satisfied.

On a serious note, let them be and play whatever they can.  Whether it’s PAHL AA, Indep AA, Faux AAA, AAA, etc.  Let them enjoy the ride.  99.99% will be beer leaguers in a few years.

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another interesting trend in the ratings - ever notice how the Chicago AA teams are always near the top?  I think this is because of the NAPHL "show" showcase division, which features Chicago AA teams and a bunch of lower half AAA teams.  The Chicago teams rating are all inflated because most of them play in these showcases against the bottom AAA teams and often win.  I bet if Pgh AA teams played in the "show", they would get that artificial bump too.

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10 hours ago, aaaahockey said:

Also, and sorry to keep double posting, the irony of it all is they all refuse to play each other.  07 Pens, Vengeance, Esmark, Icemen, Preds, SHAHA could make a league.  Even if you took Pens out, that's a strong AA.  But, as much as MyHockeyRankings is helpful, they wont play each other because oh my god we might lose 10 spots in the rankings.  

I just looked at my hockey and it seems that so far this year shaha has played icemen, Preds and Vengeance already.

Do the Pens ever play local AAA teams? I doubt they will.

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1 hour ago, Birddog said:

I just looked at my hockey and it seems that so far this year shaha has played icemen, Preds and Vengeance already.

Do the Pens ever play local AAA teams? I doubt they will.

Exactly and they should just be playing in the same PAHL division.  If PAHL had a AAA 15u I guess they would sign up.  

 

  As for the Pens 15u playing these teams that would be ridiculous.  They are a legit AAA team with a pretty deep AAA roster.  Not 5 or 6 AAA players. 

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9 hours ago, Lucky17 said:

This is a great post, that is the real problem than none of these teams will play each other.  They all take their teams and go elsewhere costing everyone more money. 

When you start playing local hockey a 5 years old...playing the same kids multiple times a year - year after year gets predictable and kind of boring.  I was one of those crazy parents who opted for the other A and played all over the place.  Zero regrets. 

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6 hours ago, whatever said:

When you start playing local hockey a 5 years old...playing the same kids multiple times a year - year after year gets predictable and kind of boring.  I was one of those crazy parents who opted for the other A and played all over the place.  Zero regrets. 

But why not get 20 or so games around the Pittsburgh area then do your traveling.  I look at some of these schedules and the kids are gone every weekend.

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13 hours ago, Icebucket said:

The main argument for players to play faux AAA is to get a little more structure and coaching, despite not being any more talented than other local AA teams.

However, recently there has been a push for AA teams to bring in qualified coaches. If you look across some of the clubs that typically field AA teams at all levels, they have equivalent (or better) coaches than most of these faux AAA teams. Hopefully the trend continues and that "AAA" push dies down a bit.

You are correct in that most AA local teams have paid non-parent coaches, but don’t make the mistake of assuming just because they are paid they are good coaches.  
 

AA appears to be somewhat of a breeding ground for younger aspiring coaches to earn some money and build their coaching resumes which includes former local players in their 20’s. Nothing wrong with that, just know that going in before committing to a team.   

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My son is an 06 and decided to leave his faux AAA team this year and just do PAHL AA because of the travel. He's at the age of girlfriend,  job, high school life. After 10 games so far, his biggest takeaway besides the slower speed of the game is the ice quality in the 3rd. He can't understand why Tier 1 and High School the ice gets cut after the 2nd period but Tier 2 just has to go out and deal with sloppy conditions that 100% affect the way you have to play. Maybe if you want more bubble AAA/AA kids to stay in AA start treating Tier 2 the same as Tier 1. As minor as some think that might be, it tells you right off the bat that Tier 2 is second rate.

To get back to your point about who's  AAA and who's not. There are really two levels.  Tier 1 Elite (top 30) then Tier 1 everyone else. The very top AA Tier 2 teams can probably hang with the very bottom Tier 1 AAA teams. But that is a really small overlap. There is nothing wrong with kids who want to play better competition and travel more opt for the extra A. They might not be playing Shattucks and Pens Elite but they'll get to play other Tier 1 teams that are on the same level such as Indy Jr Fuel, Jr Hurricanes, Etc. 

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On 9/17/2022 at 9:44 AM, aaaahockey said:

Since the Pens post is leading us in this direction, I decided to do the work.  I only looked at 2007 (Bantam Major) last year in the MyHockeyRankings.  As most of you know, the rating tells you how many goals you are expected to beat another team.  If we are saying to be "legit" AAA you shouldn't get blown out at the top, we run into a pretty immediate problem as there are some truly elite teams out there.

 

Shattuck St. Mary's is a 99.99.  #3 Pens elite should lose to them by a goal every time, on average.  That is insane talent and a huge dropoff.   Consider much lower in the rankings a 1 goal difference goes from 182-224.    By the time we get only to #19. the Flyers, they should lose to Shattuck by 5 goals (and Pens by 4) on average.  Not very competitive.  The Flyers, however, at #19 could play everyone down to #47 and only win by 2 goals on average.  And #47 could play basically anyone in the top 100 and have a 2 goal average win but still lose to Shattuck by 7.  That means #100 could have a roughly 4 goal, on average, game against #19, which depending on your perspective is a blowout or not.  In fact, for the Flyers at #17 to beat a team by 5 goals or more, they would have to play teams below 146.  

 

All that to be said, trying to pigeonhole who is AAA is silly.  What we can all agree on is that having too many AAA teams waters down the local competition (PAHL).  Sometimes I wish it was more like lacrosse where you had travel teams in a completely different season (maybe before or after the local clubs).  

This is a different take that may be helpful to new parents that I appreciate. If you really feel the need to do AAA, independent, whatever, I would rather see kids do it at an older age. Pewee, Squirt, even bantam...so much on a family before they hit puberty and really see if they have talent.

And no one ever cares when I say this, because it is all me me my kid my money around here, but I struggle with how this helps develop the sport overall. Pushing an already cost prohibitive sport to even a higher expense makes no sense to me and will at some point hurt growth. Why you wouldn't want to encourage and find ways to allow all to participate from the USA Hockey perspective makes no sense to me. You want the best athletes, yes? Not just the best athletes with money. There are other countries who don't follow this travel/elite model and they are putting out incredibly talented players.

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2 hours ago, Saucey said:

This is a different take that may be helpful to new parents that I appreciate. If you really feel the need to do AAA, independent, whatever, I would rather see kids do it at an older age. Pewee, Squirt, even bantam...so much on a family before they hit puberty and really see if they have talent.

And no one ever cares when I say this, because it is all me me my kid my money around here, but I struggle with how this helps develop the sport overall. Pushing an already cost prohibitive sport to even a higher expense makes no sense to me and will at some point hurt growth. Why you wouldn't want to encourage and find ways to allow all to participate from the USA Hockey perspective makes no sense to me. You want the best athletes, yes? Not just the best athletes with money. There are other countries who don't follow this travel/elite model and they are putting out incredibly talented players.

The secret that no one talks about with hockey and lacrosse: rich white people like it how it is because they know that if there was equal opportunity from a young age and all the way up, their nominally athletic kids would get replaced by black kids. Soccer in our nation at the highest level is finally improving on the world stage bc our best players are finally diverse (mainly non-white). 

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16 minutes ago, Theroadtobeerleague said:

The secret that no one talks about with hockey and lacrosse: rich white people like it how it is because they know that if there was equal opportunity from a young age and all the way up, their nominally athletic kids would get replaced by black kids. Soccer in our nation at the highest level is finally improving on the world stage bc our best players are finally diverse (mainly non-white). 

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19 minutes ago, Theroadtobeerleague said:

The secret that no one talks about with hockey and lacrosse: rich white people like it how it is because they know that if there was equal opportunity from a young age and all the way up, their nominally athletic kids would get replaced by black kids. Soccer in our nation at the highest level is finally improving on the world stage bc our best players are finally diverse (mainly non-white). 

maybe in your circle of friends ….

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1 hour ago, whatever said:

maybe in your circle of friends ….

What does that even mean?  Look around the country and see what happens when sports are opened up to all socio-economic groups (football, basketball, and now soccer): white athletes become less and less successful.  
golf, tennis, lacrosse, hockey: rich white people sports. 

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40 minutes ago, hockey55 said:

Looks like pens elite was 2 out of 3 teams for 2012

 

2011–pens elite was 2nd and esmark was last 7th place out of 7

 

2010-pens elite 4th, esmark 13th, Preds 16th, vengeance 22nd-25 teams 

 

2009-Shaha 3rd, esmark 4th-6 teams 

And this is why "faux" vs "real" AAA is on a team by team and not organization by organization basis. It's early but the SHAHA 09 team is likely a better team than Esmark 09. You could argue that these SHAHA AAA parents are actually the sane ones. They have a lot of AAA kids but decided that driving from the South Hills to New Ken multiple times per week is insane. Same situation as SHAHA 06. They seem less worried about the logo on the jersey and more worried about developing a good team.

Along these same lines, there is a huge opportunity out there for someone to start a Tier 1 only organization in the South Hills. The talent is better and deeper in that area of the city IMO but yet the Tier 1 clubs are in Cranberry and then up 28, which is a brutal drive for these families.

Edited by RJUSHL
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