Icemen - why?

[Danner27]

2 hours ago, hockeyisgreat said:

OK so maybe the question I should be asking is who would you take your kid to for an assessment as to if they are AAA talent?  How many real AAA teams are there in Western Pa as opposed to how many declare AAA?  Do all of the AAA teams in Western PA have at least a few AAA kids?  At what age should AAA be important?  It looks like My Hockey Rankings don't separate Tier 1 & II till 14U. Are all those teams that are AAA under 14U just adding an A?

There are 1.5 real AAA programs in western pa. PPE along with Esmark at midget. I’m going to show you an example that played out the the past few weeks. The Buffalo JR Sabers, legit AAA program. Buffalo’s 18s are notorious at falling off into the middle of the AAA rankings for multiple reasons. Since Buffalo can’t play in NY they are taking any games they can get out of state. (Have to justify that money parents are spending) 
 

18U - Buffalo beat the predators 5-0, esmark beat Buffalo 6-2, PPE beat esmark 5-2. It’s very simple math. 
 

take this advice - there is no reason to play AAA below 13 years or age. If you want to spend the money, put it towards skill development & skating. Predators, icemen and whomever else are not tier 1 programs. Save your money, the highest level achieved by 99% of western pa youth hockey players will be a decent acha club team. I can point you towards hundreds of high end players from real tier 1 programs out of Michigan that are playing acha hockey. if you would like a local sample, got look up PPE over the past 5 years, kids drafted into the ohl, ushl & nahl, they are all either no longer playing or playing acha club. Go look up the top acha club teams, many of their players have played in the nahl. 

 

[Danner27]

1 hour ago, hockeyisgreat said:

Wow!  So you are saying there are maybe only a handful of true AAA players in Western PA?  At all age groups?   Seems the Pens Elite and sometimes Esmark Stars are competing on a National level pretty often.

Yes, both teams bring kids in from out of state and Canada. Esmark gets Russians and Western European players to boot! I would guess there are no more than about 20-25 real tier 1 players at every birth year in western pa. 

[champeen]

This doc shows there were 39 D-1 players from PA in 2018-2019.   Roughly speaking, lets say that's across 4 birth years. so approx. 10 per birth year.  And let's say 5 of those 10 are from eastern Pa.  So, there are maybe 5 players in the area in any given year with a legit D-1 future.   At least 2-3 of those 5 are not playing in PA after 16u because they are headed to the USHL/BCHL/NAHL or possibly Prep.   the other 2-3 are the TOP, TOP kids on PPE or Esmark.  period.  end of story.

[hockeyisgreat]

4 hours ago, Seejay784 said:

Well PAHL is terrible but that's coming from someone who's kid is not good enough to play AAA, but he's a solid AA player. Walking away from PAHL and joining a 100% independent team was the best decision we ever made. 

BUT I get it with the AAA teams. If you are calling yourself Tier 1 and play majority of Tier 2 teams you are nothing but a money grabber. Now if you are playing Tier 1 teams and getting beat up, I'm okay with that. That will make a kid better in the long run in my opinion. 

Why is PAHL so terrible?  Don't they have AA teams?  Why is playing 100% independent so much better?  Where do you find teams to play?  Isn't it harder to find games? More Travel more expense?

[Danner27]

28 minutes ago, champeen said:

This doc shows there were 39 D-1 players from PA in 2018-2019.   Roughly speaking, lets say that's across 4 birth years. so approx. 10 per birth year.  And let's say 5 of those 10 are from eastern Pa.  So, there are maybe 5 players in the area in any given year with a legit D-1 future.   At least 2-3 of those 5 are not playing in PA after 16u because they are headed to the USHL/BCHL/NAHL or possibly Prep.   the other 2-3 are the TOP, TOP kids on PPE or Esmark.  period.  end of story.

Don’t forget - the majority of the eastern players are not even from PA. They come from jersey, Maryland & DC into the Philly Market! With that said, I completely agree with everything you wrote. Excellent job pointing out these players are scattered across FOUR birth years, people always over look that fact!  

[Spear and Magic Helmet]

1 hour ago, hockeyisgreat said:

Thanks for the input guys! Would it be safe to say that we would be wasting our time and money in AAA for anybody but Pens Elite and possibly Esmark?  These Faux AAA teams aren't going to help you get exposed to College Coaches?  Is there any other way to get exposed to College Coaches?  Any idea how many kids out of Western Pa get College Hockey Scholarships? Someone should keep stats on that. I know football and wrestling in Western PA seem to do pretty good in advancing kids to D-1 & D-2 programs with some type of Scholarship.

You have to remember that football especially is totally different. There are what, 85 scholarships per team in football? and around 120 D1 programs at the top level (never mind 1-AA and any other level that grants scholarships). I don't know much about wrestling, it might be closer to hockey after all of the programs seemingly getting axed year after year, but it's still very different from hockey. 

Hockey has, in a good year, 60 D1 teams. Each team is capped at 18 scholarships. Most of those teams have 25-30 players, and many of them only grant a total of 8-9 scholarships, so a lot of those scholarships are split up among several players. I haven't seen the latest stats on this, but in looking quickly at local NCAA rosters, it is probably still at least 50% of those scholarships going to foreign students, mostly Canadians. So the odds are pretty tough for anyone, not just Pittsburgh area players. 

The players from this area who even played D1 (let alone got money) have all ended up on a USHL or NAHL roster at some point, usually before they were done with high school. What they did before that varies, but yes, a good number of them played PPE, some played Esmark. 

Honestly, if you're good enough, they'll find you. One bright spot in so many players doing NCAA hockey for just a year or two is these coaches are constantly looking for talent because they need new players all the time. 

[hockeyisgreat]

50 minutes ago, Spear and Magic Helmet said:

You have to remember that football especially is totally different. There are what, 85 scholarships per team in football? and around 120 D1 programs at the top level (never mind 1-AA and any other level that grants scholarships). I don't know much about wrestling, it might be closer to hockey after all of the programs seemingly getting axed year after year, but it's still very different from hockey. 

Hockey has, in a good year, 60 D1 teams. Each team is capped at 18 scholarships. Most of those teams have 25-30 players, and many of them only grant a total of 8-9 scholarships, so a lot of those scholarships are split up among several players. I haven't seen the latest stats on this, but in looking quickly at local NCAA rosters, it is probably still at least 50% of those scholarships going to foreign students, mostly Canadians. So the odds are pretty tough for anyone, not just Pittsburgh area players. 

The players from this area who even played D1 (let alone got money) have all ended up on a USHL or NAHL roster at some point, usually before they were done with high school. What they did before that varies, but yes, a good number of them played PPE, some played Esmark. 

Honestly, if you're good enough, they'll find you. One bright spot in so many players doing NCAA hockey for just a year or two is these coaches are constantly looking for talent because they need new players all the time.  

Thanks, that does explain a lot. I had no idea that D-1 Hockey teams only have 18 scholarships total and really less than 5 a year to give out and really didn't think about all the foreign players getting in on them.  So do you think maybe 10 kids per birth year make it out of western PA to play at higher levels after High School?

[Danner27]

You can look at it this way - there are 1600 NCAA d1 hockey players in the entire world. So is your kid one of the best 1600 hockey players in the world with in 4 birth years ? I’d also add the 3rd goalie on every team is there to supplement income to the school for those scholarships. That 3rd goalie will never get into a game, ever, expect for unforeseen circumstances, but gets to practice with ncaa d1 players. 

[BeaverFalls]

8 hours ago, hockeyisgreat said:

Thanks for the input guys! Would it be safe to say that we would be wasting our time and money in AAA for anybody but Pens Elite and possibly Esmark?  These Faux AAA teams aren't going to help you get exposed to College Coaches?  Is there any other way to get exposed to College Coaches?  Any idea how many kids out of Western Pa get College Hockey Scholarships? Someone should keep stats on that. I know football and wrestling in Western PA seem to do pretty good in advancing kids to D-1 & D-2 programs with some type of Scholarship.

Here’s the guaranteed way to leverage AAA hockey into a scholarship.

 

1.  Don’t play it and open up a 529 account.  Put the $10-20,000 into it each year. 
2.  Spend time studying.

3. Get a legit degree or trade and play club hockey as desired with the same kids who played AAA. 
4. Graduate relatively debt free having played college hockey and having a real job. 
 

If your kid is legit D1-D3 NCAA caliber, they’ll find him. 

[hockeyisgreat]

Seriously awesome advice!  The more I look at it the more I know you are right.  Combine that with the fact that the kid needs to have the goal and not the parent. Still it would be interesting for someone to set up a Database of players from Western Pa and where they are playing now.  Is the talent in Western Pa getting better or worse?  Is the creation of all the AAA teams actually making the overall talent better or worse?

[Danner27]

52 minutes ago, hockeyisgreat said:

Seriously awesome advice!  The more I look at it the more I know you are right.  Combine that with the fact that the kid needs to have the goal and not the parent. Still it would be interesting for someone to set up a Database of players from Western Pa and where they are playing now.  Is the talent in Western Pa getting better or worse?  Is the creation of all the AAA teams actually making the overall talent better or worse?

There is a national database per say, It’s called elite prospects. 

[hockeyisgreat]

I looked at it.  Doesn't seem very user friendly.  I would like to know who the top 18U, & 16U players are in Western Pa.  Ranked 1-20 in both divisions and who they play for. Maybe they all play for Pens Elite. Do other organizations have anyone in the top.  Is there a scouting service that does that? If not someone should start it. Maybe Pittsburgh Hockey Digest. They probably see most of the top players in western pa.  Are the PIHL all star games a good indicator of the top players?  Not to hard to get a list of the top Football and Basketball players in Western pa.  Ugh just thought about the fact that maybe a lot of the top 18U players move away to play.

[Spear and Magic Helmet]

1 hour ago, hockeyisgreat said:

I looked at it.  Doesn't seem very user friendly.  I would like to know who the top 18U, & 16U players are in Western Pa.  Ranked 1-20 in both divisions and who they play for. Maybe they all play for Pens Elite. Do other organizations have anyone in the top.  Is there a scouting service that does that? If not someone should start it. Maybe Pittsburgh Hockey Digest. They probably see most of the top players in western pa.  Are the PIHL all star games a good indicator of the top players?  Not to hard to get a list of the top Football and Basketball players in Western pa.  Ugh just thought about the fact that maybe a lot of the top 18U players move away to play.

A friend of mind officiates a lot of AAA hockey, mostly for PPE. He said 16U AAA is by far the best hockey. Not that 18U is bad by any stretch, but it is considerably thinner b/c a lot of the best players are playing Jr rather than 18 U. Also this could get worse if that split season stuff ever gains a foothold around here since Jr isn't bound by split season rules. Anecdotally, the best hockey games he officiates are PPE games, but I don't know of any scouting services like what you describe.

Also I see a lot of people are saying college is 4 birth years, but I might argue it is 5 or 6 birth years. It's getting more rare, but there are still a decent amount of 24 year old seniors who are playing NCAA after aging out of junior.

[champeen]

16U hockey is without a doubt better than 18U.

Regarding college hockey: Yes, the players are spread out across more than four birth years, but they still only have 4 years of ELIGIBILITY.  So, maybe only a couple of 18yrs olds are playing D-1 college hockey today, but many others from their birth year will be playing 2 years from now.  By the same token, the number of 24 year-olds playing this year doesn't represent ALL of the kids from that BY who have played, since others have already finished playing and have moved on.   It still makes sense to call it a 4-year component, math-wise. 

[nemesis8679]

Long story short. At a certain level, not a lot separates most of those kids. Hard work would be the deciding factor. Plus, not only does the skill and hard work need to be there, but also the commitment to the sport. Very, very few kids have all three. 

I would say most kids, if you asked them, would say they want to play in the NHL. But in reality, not many kids would want to put in what it really takes, and generally speaking it's still a huge gamble (the Crosby's and McDavid's are the rare exception). Most would rather have a great time playing hockey, and still be able to live like most other kids of their age. 

[twoboys]

On 10/14/2020 at 10:50 AM, champeen said:

16U hockey is without a doubt better than 18U.

Regarding college hockey: Yes, the players are spread out across more than four birth years, but they still only have 4 years of ELIGIBILITY.  So, maybe only a couple of 18yrs olds are playing D-1 college hockey today, but many others from their birth year will be playing 2 years from now.  By the same token, the number of 24 year-olds playing this year doesn't represent ALL of the kids from that BY who have played, since others have already finished playing and have moved on.   It still makes sense to call it a 4-year component, math-wise. 

I think those college numbers aren't that accurate.  RMU has 4 players form Western Pennsylvania.  One is from Wexford.  Played for the PPE.  Another is from "Pittsburgh" and played for the the faux AAA Preds and a season with the PPE.  And one is a transfer from UConn who is from Bridgeville.  He played for Esmark and PPE.  Lastly, another kid is from Moon and played for the PPE.  And a couple kids are at Niagra?  I am not saying that there are 50 kids playing D1 form Pittsburgh but more than 5.

 

[forbin]

19 minutes ago, twoboys said:

I think those college numbers aren't that accurate.  RMU has 4 players form Western Pennsylvania.  One is from Wexford.  Played for the PPE.  Another is from "Pittsburgh" and played for the the faux AAA Preds and a season with the PPE.  And one is a transfer from UConn who is from Bridgeville.  He played for Esmark and PPE.  Lastly, another kid is from Moon and played for the PPE.  And a couple kids are at Niagra?  I am not saying that there are 50 kids playing D1 form Pittsburgh but more than 5.

 

1 on Penn State played for PPE. 

2 on Mercyhurst both played for PPE.

1 on Bowling Green played for PPE.

There is definitely a trend here...

[champeen]

45 minutes ago, twoboys said:

I think those college numbers aren't that accurate.  RMU has 4 players form Western Pennsylvania.  One is from Wexford.  Played for the PPE.  Another is from "Pittsburgh" and played for the the faux AAA Preds and a season with the PPE.  And one is a transfer from UConn who is from Bridgeville.  He played for Esmark and PPE.  Lastly, another kid is from Moon and played for the PPE.  And a couple kids are at Niagra?  I am not saying that there are 50 kids playing D1 form Pittsburgh but more than 5.

 

If you go back and look at the screenshot i posted, it shows 39 D-1 players from PA.   I was just extrapolating to 10 per birth year, and 4 or 5 of THOSE being from eastern PA, so 5 or 6 PER BIRTH YEAR.  but it's possible that the total PA number is weighted more heavily to western PA due to philly area players actually being from NJ or DE, and thus not counting toward the 39.

 

[twoboys]

10 minutes ago, forbin said:

1 on Penn State played for PPE. 

2 on Mercyhurst both played for PPE.

1 on Bowling Green played for PPE.

There is definitely a trend here...

I get it.  The PPE is the big dog.   

However, looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how things play out.   The PPE requires North Catholic and Excel.  Not everyone from "Pittsburgh" lives within commuting distance to North Catholic.  The out of towners know coming in that it is required.  For the locals it is much more difficult decision.   Anyone know how many kids from the 06 team are at North Catholic? 

Also, right now the 08 and 09 Vengeance teams are close to the level of the PPE teams.   

[twoboys]

2 minutes ago, champeen said:

If you go back and look at the screenshot i posted, it shows 39 D-1 players from PA.   I was just extrapolating to 10 per birth year, and 4 or 5 of THOSE being from eastern PA, so 5 or 6 PER BIRTH YEAR.  but it's possible that the total PA number is weighted more heavily to western PA due to philly area players actually being from NJ or DE, and thus not counting toward the 39.

 

My bad.  Misread the post.

[forbin]

59 minutes ago, twoboys said:

I get it.  The PPE is the big dog.   

However, looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how things play out.   The PPE requires North Catholic and Excel.  Not everyone from "Pittsburgh" lives within commuting distance to North Catholic.  The out of towners know coming in that it is required.  For the locals it is much more difficult decision.   Anyone know how many kids from the 06 team are at North Catholic? 

Also, right now the 08 and 09 Vengeance teams are close to the level of the PPE teams.   

I don't think PPE "requires" NC and excel at the 14U,15O,16U levels but I am positive it helps your chances out tremendously for making the roster. As does daddy's pockets... I think the new "prep" team is the only one that you have to attend NC for. Someone please correct me if I am wrong

[Danner27]

3 hours ago, twoboys said:

I get it.  The PPE is the big dog. 

Also, right now the 08 and 09 Vengeance teams are close to the level of the PPE teams.   

Nobody is watching 12 year olds, especially in western pa.

[BeaverFalls]

37 minutes ago, Danner27 said:

Nobody is watching 12 year olds, especially in western pa.

When I have my suspicions that Quinlan does but for other reasons. 

[fafa fohi]

7 hours ago, BeaverFalls said:

When I have my suspicions that Quinlan does but for other reasons. 

That is pretty offensive bro.  Disagreeing with someone politically is fine, but going where you went is downright offensive.  And @Danner27 thinks that was a good comment?

Wow, just wow.

[fafa fohi]

1 minute ago, fafa fohi said:

I cannot believe this thread has come down to this.  How sad.

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by fafa fohi