RJUSHL

Are you thinking that many of the former Esmark 09 players that are now on Preds 09 AAA and Allegheny 09 AA are going back to Esmark? Why did they leave in the first place?

Good perspective.

False. I think the AHF and Black Bears takeover of hockey is a bad thing. It would be in everybody’s best interest if PAHL could get out of their own way and adapt. Hockey is better than ever in Pittsburgh. Yes, ever. But PAHL hasn’t been able to keep up with the changing dynamics of hockey in the region. They left the door open for Black Bear leagues. That’s a problem and families pay the price.

I'll be surprised if a single one of those top four teams I mentioned play PAHL next year. If they do, they're going to lose their best players to the teams that don't. It doesn't have to be this way. It's an easy change that PAHL could make.

A lot of the best tournaments and showcases are birth year based. That's true for both AAA and AA. Really makes no difference what USA hockey recognizes or not. The top organizations create birth year teams because that's where the demand is. But then PAHL refuses to adapt their divisions and pointlessly digs in their heals as teams continue leave for 13U and 15U AA divisions in the AHF or play a completely independent schedule.

Who knows? A lot of 09 teams could improve and move up to AA. Foxes, Aviators, Yetis, etc. Do you think a AA Minor division is a bad idea? Is it in the best interest of PAHL to create one and avoid losing three or four good 09 AA teams?

I believe there are only two 08 teams playing 16U AA this year. SCIR is doing well but the 08 Allegheny team is getting killed. Just from talking to two or three parents on these 09 AA teams, most aren't sure what to do. But almost all of them say that PAHL really isn't a viable option for them.

You'd probably have 7 or 8?

These are the current Bantam Major AA PAHL teams: Allegheny Renegades North Pitt South Pitt Preds Lebo Lawrence SHAHA They are all 2009 teams except Lawrence and SHAHA. But those teams really aren't AA teams so their plans for next year really aren't that relevant to this discussion. I'm sure they'll both filter into an A Major PAHL division. But what are the plans for the remaining 2009 AA teams? It's unlikely that the top four teams (Allegheny, SCIR, North Pitt, South Pitt) play in 16U AA against mostly 2008 teams or play in an A Major division that doesn't fit their skill. Is PAHL destroying itself from within by not offering more AA Minor divisions? I can't see any of those top four teams playing PAHL next year. Two other interesting and very good 2009 AA teams are Icemen and Mid-State. I'm sure the Mustangs will continue with their very reasonable independent schedule. Icemen played AHF last year. Will they go Tier 1 this upcoming season?

They still playing in New Ken? Uphill and losing battle. More and better hockey players up and down the 79 corridor and in the south hills. They would have much better success starting a new AAA team from scratch at Printscape. Just a massive area you can pull from compared to New Ken.

Esmark has fallen way off. They still have a bit of a foothold with 07 and older players, but those kids will eventually age out and people have found other better options. Hard to stop the negative momentum. I'll be interested to see what Black Bear does about Esmark, but it's for sure an issue. No bantam minor team? Not a good look.

Murry Gunty sounds like an idiot in that Twitter thread. He's confusing standings vs. rankings. They have completely different goals. Murry and the various Black Bear leagues were forced to use a KRACH rating (instead of traditional standings) because of the unbalanced schedule. They are using a KRACH (decent method) as an alternative for standings. They can't use standings because the schedules are unbalanced and different teams in the league play a different number of games. Just like in the NHL there are division standings but then all sorts of different media outlets put out their power rankings, and some of those power rankings are formula based. Murry made the point that some team won three games over the weekend but dropped in rankings. How does he not understand that this is perfectly reasonable? Rankings are designed to be predictive and it's completely reasonable and plausible that depending on the competition you could win three games and still go down in rankings. Again, rankings are not the same as standings. Rankings are a predictive tool and helpful when traditional "standings" are not possible. I don't think MHR has perfect methodology, but I'm not smart enough to come up with some superior formula. But it's just bizarre reading some of the comments from Murry. The good thing is that all of this is testable. It will soon be evident which ranking methodology (MHR or Murry) have the best formula for most accurately ranking teams.

MHR is fine but not great. Definitely room for something better on the market. The biggest issue with MHR is that hive/cluster effect. Little pockets of teams in different states or regions play each other over and over again and the MHR rating just isn't accurate without much input from other teams in other states and leagues. You'll play a team from Buffalo with a similar MHR rating and they suck. Then you'll play a team from Detroit that has a similar rating but plays almost exclusively local games and you get smoked.

Your math is strange. 09s have two Tier II teams well inside the top 100 of the combined rankings. Those are better teams than those very low-end Tier I 08 teams you mentioned. How many local 08 kids made the national camp this summer? I think five? That's pretty good, but there will be more 09s. 09s are deeper. I think arguments could be made for a few different BYs. But in terms of depth, hockey in Pittsburgh is absolutely getting better with each passing year. I know all the cynical, depressed, and downer type people never like to admit when anything is good or positive.

And yet here you are reading and commenting on this post.

2009 is an extremely strong BY in the area. Six teams in the top 100. I'm guessing that's never happened before. May be the strongest and deepest BY ever to come out of Pittsburgh. 09 Icemen have a legit shot at a Tier II national championship. Looks like right now they are actually #1 in the national Tier 2 rankings.

Yea it's kind of funny people whining about old boards and a light being out. From what I hear Rebellion gives a ridiculous amount of ice time to the teams that want it. Must be nice.

Yea not a great look. They should fix those issues ASAP. But it sure beats the ice squeeze that is happening at other south hills rinks, especially Spencer YMCA and SHAHA. Some teams don't even practice every week because of a lack of ice.

I think Esmark will usually have a strong U18 team. The best PPE players and best players in the area have moved on to juniors or prep by U18. But it does seem like a solid team. Best of luck to those players. Sometimes U18 can be a good path.

You're absolutely right. Only three local organizations had teams in the top 20 last year; PPE, SHAHA, and Vengeance. Esmark is a quality option, but they've slipped a bit. The argument isn't about whether they've slipped or not, it's about how much they've slipped. Some think they've slipped a lot. Others think it's just been a little. Not sure what Kool-Aid you think I'm drinking. I'm not the one singing the praises of any one particular organization. I'm just pointing out the changing landscape. Things are never static.

Once again, it's not 2015 anymore. Things are changing. When the supposed #2 Tier 1 program in the area can't put together a bantam major team, there are some serious underlying issues. Maybe they'll correct course and get back to where they were, or maybe they'll continue to fade. BTW... the money/connections angle is tiresome. Yes money and connections are advantageous in every single sphere of life, but if a kid is good enough, they will be found. Teams and scouts are trying to build the best possible team. Their jobs are on the line. There are kids at the USNTDP right now who played AA bantam hockey. If you're good enough, they will find you. The money/connections angle is just an excuse that makes people feel better. People like to self-soothe instead of telling themselves the hard truth. That's fine.

Last season at 18U Esmark was second in the region behind PPE. I don't think 18U is a good barometer because the best players in the region have already moved away to prep or juniors by that time. 18U AAA is not the best path to juniors or D1, and the best players are gone from Pittsburgh at this point. My point isn't that Esmark is all of a sudden irrelevant. My point is that they are losing some relevancy. They are no longer the undisputed #2 Tier 1 program in the region.

You sure about that? Esmark couldn't even put together a 14U team this season. Just to remind you about where things finished last season... 16U #14 PPE #20 SHAHA #37 Esmark #112 Preds 15U #8 PPE #36 Esmark #73 SHAHA #88 Vengeance #95 Icemen #103 Preds 14U #3 PPE #10 Vengeance #58 SHAHA #91 Preds #113 Esmark 13U #9 PPE #41 Vengeance #77 Preds #82 Esmark #93 SHAHA It's not 2015 anymore. Things change.

I started a thread on this at the beginning of last season. More often than not Esmark has been passed up by Vengeance, Preds, and SHAHA according to the rankings. That will probably accelerate as they continue to play out of PIA. And in terms of what constitutes a legit AAA team, I think it's more helpful to look at the rankings of recent teams that have won Tier II national championships. Where were they ranked? SCIR 16U won a Tier 2 national championship as the 178th ranked 16U team in the country. Yes that's low, but you have to be a ridiculously good AA team, borderline AAA team to win a Tier 2 national championship. And there are also countless examples of teams ranked in the 75 range that do very well at Tier 1 nationals. So for all the AAA gatekeepers that say you have to be a top 40 team to consider yourself AAA, you're just wrong. And it's kind of gross how you take pride in delegitimizing teams. (Not speaking to this particular comment, just in general.)

The majority of the local teams that played in AHF AA showcase over the weekend also play PAHL AA. I believe the only exception is the 09 Iceman. I know Allegheny 14U AA and South Pittsburgh 14U AA are playing both PAHL and AHF this season. These teams are playing a partial AHF schedule with a few showcase weekends, and then if they qualify they'll have playoffs. They can play in PAHL playoffs as well as AHF playoffs. It's not an either or proposition at this point. Teams do both. As PAHL dwindles and AHF keeps picking up teams, I would think some of these organizations will move to a full AHF schedule. This is a huge shift in Western PA hockey. It's happening and PAHL has done nothing to stop it. It'll happen first at AA, and then lower divisions.