BB vs MHR

[stickboy]

It’s been slow around here, so I thought this might be interesting to discuss.  Seems Murry BB is ticked off with MHR and started his own “Power Rankings”.  Does he have a point or is it just an agenda to promote their leagues/teams?  This is just a few of the posts he’s been firing off.

 

 

[nemesis8679]

You and I both know that the teams around here, at least, aren't going to play each other unless tournament fate somewhere pits them against each other. We all know why. 

[nemesis8679]

Both ways have their pros and cons, but MHR seems to get it pretty close as the season progresses. But at the same time, you'll pull your hair out trying to makes sense of everything. Hockey has so many variables, you can have a team beat another team ranked quite higher by several goals while the next game against a much lower ranked team you can lose to. You can lose to a much higher ranked team and watch a team you clobbered beat that team. You can get generally pretty close, but there's too many variables to be 100% accurate for either system. 

[Rebel Panther]

I agree with Murry Gunty that emphasizing covering the “spread” and not winning is the wrong motivator.  Covering the spread shifts the focus away from sound team defense and team play. 

There should be nothing wrong with beating a 'lesser' team 3-0.  We all know that a hot goalie can change the dynamics of a game.

Teams also might play the team down the road rather than travel to who knows where for the sake of their MHR. 

A final thought, and I really haven't  thought this though, but can you imagine what the NHL or NCAA would be like if they were based on MHR and not team standings?  

Edited November 10, 2023 by Rebel Panther

[aaaahockey]

I also think he's making a good point about the point spread.  Even worse than that is when you win a game and the kids feel like garbage because they only won by 3 instead of 5 and other crap like that.  Sucks the fun and the interest in winning out. Leaves everyone bitter and jaded.  

[Loach]

MHR is a godsend for managers trying to figure out what tourneys to enter or what independent games to schedule. That was the initial purpose and it is very good at it. Like any algorithm, it needs data to become more accurate so it is much better in the mid to late season compared to the start. It is also the best tool we have for determining the best teams in the country for things like Nationals.

I have some knowledge of 18U hockey right now, can't speak much for the younger ages, and I've watched games of many top 40 18U AAA teams this year. The ranking of the top 18U teams by MHR is way more accurate than the Krach rankings of some of these teams in THF. Very easy to game the Krach system by playing an easier schedule and racking up wins. People say you can game the MHR system by playing a tougher schedule, but I haven't found that is the case. MHR does run into issues when there are lots of games where teams are beating each other by more than the 7-goal maximum. The whole point of MHR in the first place was to try to provide data to prevent those match-ups from happening. If tourney and league organizers spent more time focused on that goal, there would be less issues all around.

Not always possible but here's what every coach/manager should be striving for: try to build a schedule where you are predominantly playing teams rated within 3 goals of you, and then you just need to worry about winning the game (not covering the spread). I'm talking about higher level, older-age youth hockey here, where coaching to win should be occurring. 

[twoboys]

14 hours ago, nemesis8679 said:

You and I both know that the teams around here, at least, aren't going to play each other unless tournament fate somewhere pits them against each other. We all know why. 

Wrong.  Pens and Esmark are playing each other at 15, 16 and 18 this year.  The games are in December.

[RJUSHL]

MHR is fine but not great. Definitely room for something better on the market. The biggest issue with MHR is that hive/cluster effect. Little pockets of teams in different states or regions play each other over and over again and the MHR rating just isn't accurate without much input from other teams in other states and leagues. You'll play a team from Buffalo with a similar MHR rating and they suck. Then you'll play a team from Detroit that has a similar rating but plays almost exclusively local games and you get smoked.

Edited November 10, 2023 by RJUSHL

[nemesis8679]

1 hour ago, twoboys said:

Wrong.  Pens and Esmark are playing each other at 15, 16 and 18 this year.  The games are in December.

That's good. Preds, Icemen, or Vengeance be playing either of those organizations? 

Edited November 10, 2023 by nemesis8679

[Icebucket]

1 hour ago, nemesis8679 said:

That's good. Preds, Icemen, or Vengeance be playing either of those organizations? 

Those teams would be far better served playing the local AA teams.

I've seen a good number of tier 1 and 2 18U games this year. If all 3 played in PAHL, vengeance would probably be at the top but would play close games. Preds somewhere in the 3-5 range, and Icemenn would battle to stay out of last place 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Icebucket

[PUCKCOVID19]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:34 PM, nemesis8679 said:

You and I both know that the teams around here, at least, aren't going to play each other unless tournament fate somewhere pits them against each other. We all know why. 

at the ned of the day though, who truly moves the most players on around pgh. its easy PPE. 

[Happy Hockey Fan]

2 hours ago, PUCKCOVID19 said:

at the ned of the day though, who truly moves the most players on around pgh. its easy PPE. 

Esmark has done a good job. Watched an Esmark kid last night on Pittsburgh Sports Met. And another Esmark kid just committed to RMU. 

[carroll81]

BB uses their Krach system to schedule the AHF.  I have worked a half dozen of their games in the last couple of weeks.  All but one was a running clock (5 goal differential).  In half of them the running clock started near the beginning of the second period.  So, not sure that system is any better at matching teams.

For any system to work, you need lots of data spread across the entirety of the group you are trying to rank.  That's why the MHR ranking gets better as the season goes on.  The points made about teams playing only within their area/pod definitely hurts the accuracy of the system.

[nemesis8679]

5 hours ago, PUCKCOVID19 said:

at the ned of the day though, who truly moves the most players on around pgh. its easy PPE. 

Sure, but to where? It also looks better than it is because people don't understand what "tendered" means. 

But I agree they move more kids on to somewhere else than any other teams. They should, they're pulling from a much larger geographical pool than other teams. 

[stickboy]

Not quite sure where you are going with the tender discussion but the only one that really means anything is from USHL. NAHL tenders don’t mean much.   

[PUCKCOVID19]

22 hours ago, nemesis8679 said:

Sure, but to where? It also looks better than it is because people don't understand what "tendered" means. 

But I agree they move more kids on to somewhere else than any other teams. They should, they're pulling from a much larger geographical pool than other teams. 

sure but what most folks don't know is the nahl and their money funder leagues naphl and below. nahl has to tender certain number of kids from every team, its in the leagues clause. 99 percent NEVER make it and end up on their na3 team or lower.   look at last years tenders none of them in the league. were they. cdc and other tier3 teams.   and yes ncdc is nothing more then a glorified t3. the top 10 teams in premier could play w or probably beat most of the ncdc teams. EVEN better now you have kids running to plat t2 pay to play in Canada now.  now thats funny!!!!!   time for them to grow up and be an adult..

[nemesis8679]

8 hours ago, stickboy said:

Not quite sure where you are going with the tender discussion but the only one that really means anything is from USHL. NAHL tenders don’t mean much.   

My point was it sounds like a big deal to a lot of people, while mostly not amounting to anything. 

But it looks good on the lcd tv's in the Cranberry lobby. 

[stickboy]

Oh. I haven’t been there in a while and never noticed. But they do put players into the USHL and to high level D1 programs. No one else in MidAm is doing that on the regular. 

[aaaahockey]

1 hour ago, stickboy said:

Oh. I haven’t been there in a while and never noticed. But they do put players into the USHL and to high level D1 programs. No one else in MidAm is doing that on the regular. 

Are they putting a lot of kids into high level D1?   Kids who grew up in Pittsburgh and were developed by them?  Serious question. I know the odd 1 or 2 studs and even then some of them left for greener grass. 

[nemesis8679]

1 hour ago, aaaahockey said:

Are they putting a lot of kids into high level D1?   Kids who grew up in Pittsburgh and were developed by them?  Serious question. I know the odd 1 or 2 studs and even then some of them left for greener grass. 

That's the crazy thing. They have a lot of kids starting at "elite" 8u or whatever. Not many, or any, left by 16u-18u most years. By 12u-14u, they arent developed as much as other players from elsewhere, and they start getting cut loose in favor of outsiders. The ones that have made it somewhere truly impressive had more development outside of Pens, and probably would've succeeded going further with or without the Pens Elite. 

 

But, regardless where they pull their older players from and probably because of it, they're the most legit AAA option in the area and it's really not even close. 

[stickboy]

Off the top of my head I think there are a handful currently at Penn State and one at Michigan State. One going to BU next year. All Pittsburgh kids.  Probably some more out there

[stickboy]

To get back on topic here’s a recent post by MHR attempting to identify strength of leagues. THF with the most teams but at the bottom of ratings

 

[nemesis8679]

23 hours ago, stickboy said:

To get back on topic here’s a recent post by MHR attempting to identify strength of leagues. THF with the most teams but at the bottom of ratings

 

THF has an insane amount of teams compared to most of them. Double or more than most. Some have 4 or 5 teams. I'm sure that could have an affect somehow. Or maybe not. I'm not a statistician. Just seems like all things aren't equal when there's that much disparity in a seemingly important category. 

[dazedandconfused]

So this is a screen shot of the AHF 10U Gretzky division and what one would assume are the Krach based rankings.

So in this system you have a team Royals 10U A Gray with what looks to be an average team in the division at 13-10 with 118 GF and 104 against. This team in this standings system is ranked behind a team that's 3-15 with 44-132 for a minus 88 difference. And the worst part is that the 13-10 team beat the 3-15 team 8-3.

And you have Palmyra at 8th place at 24-1 and +160 on the GF-GA and while they are obviously vying for 23-24 sandbaggers of the year, how are they below so many teams which they have beaten?

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by dazedandconfused
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[SoPiGC]

Problem #1 with this is that a squirt team has played more than 25 games before Thanksgiving.